Guitar Gear Forum

Reverse Entropy wrote:I think the impact of the next wave of automation will be from the sheer proportion of it.

Kiosks or self serve screens replacing racks of clothes or counter sales. Browse through /SHIRTS/FUNKY until you decide you like Shirt/Tropical/Style6 and hit the button. In a minute you get served a package and insert your payment card. Much less display space, faster customer throughput. Obviously there are things to tweak, but the concept will come.

McDonalds already has kiosk ordering, and so does the deli counter at Sheetz. The drink dispenser is already 90% automated, it's just not putting on the lid yet.

AnheuserBusch/InBev has already tested automated truck delivery from factory to warehouse for distribution. Yeah for now there is a "safety human" there in the truck, but that won't last.

How many people become jobless if we automate stuff like the above ? It's a big chunk.

Yup. It will be a big shift.

Kinda like how farming used to be a big employer across the US. The range of jobs most people work now weren't even dreamt up 50 years ago, so try to think big picture.

We may not know what the future industries will be, but rest assured people will have jobs. Don't be scared of change. Embrace it. Again, no one wants large swaths of middle class people unemployed. That will lead to unrest, chaos, and no tax revenue for the government. They don't want that.

Dave wrote:

Reverse Entropy wrote:I think the impact of the next wave of automation will be from the sheer proportion of it.

Kiosks or self serve screens replacing racks of clothes or counter sales. Browse through /SHIRTS/FUNKY until you decide you like Shirt/Tropical/Style6 and hit the button. In a minute you get served a package and insert your payment card. Much less display space, faster customer throughput. Obviously there are things to tweak, but the concept will come.

McDonalds already has kiosk ordering, and so does the deli counter at Sheetz. The drink dispenser is already 90% automated, it's just not putting on the lid yet.

AnheuserBusch/InBev has already tested automated truck delivery from factory to warehouse for distribution. Yeah for now there is a "safety human" there in the truck, but that won't last.

How many people become jobless if we automate stuff like the above ? It's a big chunk.

Yup. It will be a big shift.

Kinda like how farming used to be a big employer across the US. The range of jobs most people work now weren't even dreamt up 50 years ago, so try to think big picture.

We may not know what the future industries will be, but rest assured people will have jobs. Don't be scared of change. Embrace it. Again, no one wants large swaths of middle class people unemployed. That will lead to unrest, chaos, and no tax revenue for the government. They don't want that.

yep. "Shift" is the key term here.

Jobs will shift, but it will not disappear.

You may not notice this, depending on your social circle, but only 33% of US workers have a college degree. That means the vast majority (67%) work jobs that require an associate degree, trade school or high school degree. These jobs are probably the easiest to automate but dealing with 60%+ of your consumer market unemployed is unthinkable, at even half that rate the economy collapses and companies will end up with really efficient ways to make products/provide services - and not enough people to buy them. A certain amount of jobs in the market is necessary, for workers AND businesses alike.

It's hard to play prophet when it comes to these things because it's too early to determine what these jobs will be, but there are some things that are pretty set in stone: Companies will still need customers, govt will still need taxpayers, etc .. that will not change with AI. so there will be jobs. Maybe not today's jobs, but there will be jobs. People will have to learn to adapt faster than ever before though.


Another thing to consider is that as technologies evolve, legislation also evolves.

In the beginning of the industrial revolution, companies could basically do whatever they wanted to in order to make their products with very little regard for the environment. As the industrial revolution grew and became strong enough to completely obliterate the environment, along came environmental regulations and these days companies are held much more accountable to preserve the environment at an acceptable level.

Likewise, once AI gets to the point where it can completely wipe out the workforce, you bet there will be regulations holding them responsible to preserve the workforce at an acceptable level as well.

This is IMO where it becomes important to start having a dialogue about what constitutes "work" and whether people should be entitled to a basic income since as automation increasingly displaces more and more labor and shifts people into service oriented employment wages will steadily decrease. (as we've seen happen over the last 3 or 4 decades)

At what point do we just decide our economy can't function as a "market" in the traditional sense and we shift to more of a modified wellfare state?

Dave wrote:

Reverse Entropy wrote:I think the impact of the next wave of automation will be from the sheer proportion of it.

Kiosks or self serve screens replacing racks of clothes or counter sales. Browse through /SHIRTS/FUNKY until you decide you like Shirt/Tropical/Style6 and hit the button. In a minute you get served a package and insert your payment card. Much less display space, faster customer throughput. Obviously there are things to tweak, but the concept will come.

McDonalds already has kiosk ordering, and so does the deli counter at Sheetz. The drink dispenser is already 90% automated, it's just not putting on the lid yet.

AnheuserBusch/InBev has already tested automated truck delivery from factory to warehouse for distribution. Yeah for now there is a "safety human" there in the truck, but that won't last.

How many people become jobless if we automate stuff like the above ? It's a big chunk.

Yup. It will be a big shift.

Kinda like how farming used to be a big employer across the US. The range of jobs most people work now weren't even dreamt up 50 years ago, so try to think big picture.

We may not know what the future industries will be, but rest assured people will have jobs. Don't be scared of change. Embrace it. Again, no one wants large swaths of middle class people unemployed. That will lead to unrest, chaos, and no tax revenue for the government. They don't want that.

You are middle class when you can afford not too work, if you still have to work you are working class

(I know its not quite that but really that's what it used to be).

If you go to work and your name is on your shirt, you are working class. If your name is on your desk or door, you are middle class. If your name is on the building, you are upper class.

I think Rich Hall said that.

Ry Manchu wrote:If you go to work and your name is on your shirt, you are working class. If your name is on your desk or door, you are middle class. If your name is on the building, you are upper class.

I think Rich Hall said that.

Sweet...

Name on cubicle...

Made it!

lol

Personal Fabrication is another part of the discussion that needs to be considered. It could be a fair offset to jobs disappearing. You may not be able to have a job working the line at a manufacturer. But, when you can fabricate the same stuff in your house on a 3D printer, will it even matter?

This shit is fascinating.

Or when you can make your house with a 3D printer.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... just-10000

My dentist has begun making a lot of stuff with a 3D printer. He can do every type of tooth.

Here's what a MIT brainiac has to say about it....


https://www.edge.org/conversation/neil_ ... al-reality

All well and good, but doesn't account for the powers that be ensuring humans are made redundant through automation/computers/robots.

Those things will perform tasks that humans currently perform. They'll do them with more precision, less human input, and be more modular in that any regular person can run them. One scientist makes the widget so any normal person can use it.

Look at cable boxes. It used to require a skilled tech coming out to the house to install cable TV/internet. Now they ship a box with everything a normal person needs, ready to go. They expanded the infrastructure, and streamlined the process so well that it just involves plugging the box in the wall.


And then we have a group of skilled techs that will move on to the next thing in life. It's evolution. That's how we get better as a society. Putting an end to automation to "save jobs" is dumb.

GuitarBilly wrote:
yep. "Shift" is the key term here.

Jobs will shift, but it will not disappear.

You may not notice this, depending on your social circle, but only 33% of US workers have a college degree. That means the vast majority (67%) work jobs that require an associate degree, trade school or high school degree. These jobs are probably the easiest to automate but dealing with 60%+ of your consumer market unemployed is unthinkable, at even half that rate the economy collapses and companies will end up with really efficient ways to make products/provide services - and not enough people to buy them. A certain amount of jobs in the market is necessary, for workers AND businesses alike.

There's no real reason why the jobs have to shift. They probably will if we're talking sub-human AI automation. But if AI gets as good or better than people at doing the things that people are good at, then there's no shift. The AI machines just do everything. Some forget that this means incredible wealth for the species.


Analogies to the cotton mill, printing press, and the automobile don't have to be relevant anymore.


The other idea of jobs having to exist so the employees can buy the product is just weird. The economics of that don't make sense for private companies, no matter what you read about Henry Ford. If the conflict arises, where automating leads to less demand for the product, the automation will still occur (provided that market competition is allowed)

Eh, maybe so. I guess we'll see, won't we?

I still put money on government intervention occurring, but shit even if I'm wrong... money will be worthless anyway.

With a house that operates off of the grid, full automation of manufacturing, a organic garden in the yard, some chickens for eggs and slaughter along with a personal 3D Fabricator, what would the point of work be anyway?

Self satisfaction?


OK.


I'll be off surfing.

I don't think most Fortune 500 companies look at production in terms of will we have enough employees to buy this product. If a company can make something that is currently profitable with less workforce at a low enough cost to sell it for equal or less than their competition, then they will. There are very few CEOs benevolent enough to ensure that his or her employees can purchase their products. If demand dries up, you have a market correction and there will be some new companies in the S&P 500. Word is that Toshiba is going under. They misjudged the markets for their products. Perception of investors is equally as important as today's profitability. Amazon ran in the red for years, yet the stock kept going up, which allowed them to add markets, market share, buy competition, streamline, etc. They also kept liquidity on hand and didn't over release shares. They could also do it cheaper and with less overhead and employees than brick and mortar and ran a whole bunch of their competition into the ground.

Ry Manchu wrote:I don't think most Fortune 500 companies look at production in terms of will we have enough employees to buy this product. If a company can make something that is currently profitable with less workforce at a low enough cost to sell it for equal or less than their competition, then they will. There are very few CEOs benevolent enough to ensure that his or her employees can purchase their products. If demand dries up, you have a market correction and there will be some new companies in the S&P 500. Word is that Toshiba is going under. They misjudged the markets for their products. Perception of investors is equally as important as today's profitability. Amazon ran in the red for years, yet the stock kept going up, which allowed them to add markets, market share, buy competition, streamline, etc. They also kept liquidity on hand and didn't over release shares. They could also do it cheaper and with less overhead and employees than brick and mortar and ran a whole bunch of their competition into the ground.

This is a very big and valid point and something I see in the company I work for.

Ry Manchu wrote:I don't think most Fortune 500 companies look at production in terms of will we have enough employees to buy this product. If a company can make something that is currently profitable with less workforce at a low enough cost to sell it for equal or less than their competition, then they will. There are very few CEOs benevolent enough to ensure that his or her employees can purchase their products. If demand dries up, you have a market correction and there will be some new companies in the S&P 500. Word is that Toshiba is going under. They misjudged the markets for their products. Perception of investors is equally as important as today's profitability. Amazon ran in the red for years, yet the stock kept going up, which allowed them to add markets, market share, buy competition, streamline, etc. They also kept liquidity on hand and didn't over release shares. They could also do it cheaper and with less overhead and employees than brick and mortar and ran a whole bunch of their competition into the ground.

zero of them do. its folk economics. if you see anyone express something like that, its PR.

MR RUBATO wrote:

neilrocks25 wrote:

TurboPablo wrote:How effective is AI if someone unplugs it?

What if it becomes self aware and stops you

There's actually several high level programmers who are genuinely concerned about how poorly tested AI could go awry. It's funny to think of in terms of skynet, but it's also something to be taken seriously.

Did you guys know there's actually a company called Cyberdyne? And they make FUCK!NG ROBOTS???
http://www.cyberdyne.jp/english/

Life imitating art. If we need to scorch the sky I am gonna be pissed...

itchyfingers wrote:

MR RUBATO wrote:

neilrocks25 wrote:

TurboPablo wrote:How effective is AI if someone unplugs it?

What if it becomes self aware and stops you

There's actually several high level programmers who are genuinely concerned about how poorly tested AI could go awry. It's funny to think of in terms of skynet, but it's also something to be taken seriously.

Did you guys know there's actually a company called Cyberdyne? And they make FUCK!NG ROBOTS???
http://www.cyberdyne.jp/english/

Life imitating art. If we need to scorch the sky I am gonna be pissed...

welcome to earf

The automation process today is unstoppable, as all capitalists want to automate the work process, as it increases productivity and reduces the cost of production. But there are some professions that robots will never be able to replace. I always wanted to become a plumber, because I knew that it was a well-paid job that was in constant demand.

.

I’m a designer/illustrator in the music industry. I don’t see AI taking over in my lifetime but at some point it’s gonna be easier/cheaper to have some AI program create band art. The tech just isn’t there yet and is a long way out.