Corona Closure HR Chronicles: The Ballad of Toby

[sleewell]

apparently going to a mega church will save you from the virus if you put enough money in the basket for the pastors next private jet.

[nightflameauto]

Yeah, the lack of leadership in this situation is embarrassing. And we're definitely paying a price for it. It could have been different had we gotten any form of take-charge from our elected officials at any level before it had already started sweeping through us instead of, "nah, nothing to see here."

I do think Bill Gates' plan is probably necessary. Will anybody in charge listen? I mean, at this point we're seeing the first signs of reality setting in at the top, but I don't know how long that will hold.

[K-Bizzle]

I think we are going to have a gradated scale of 'isolation' rules - depending on where you are in the country.
A good portion of the country (state-wise, not population-wise) will be back to work soon - at least by Easter, if not sooner.
I think the focus may change over to protecting the elderly and those at-risk - while letting the rest of us 'develop' herd immunity.
We can't keep everyone quarantined for the year that it will probably take to develop vaccines for this (if ever).

NYC is screwed for a while - but that is all we hear about in the news lately (at least on this coast).
Has it gotten into the homeless population on the West Coast yet?

I know it’s been a few days, but now the President is recommending social distancing to continue through April 30th. I don’t claim to be an expert, but going beyond that is going to destroy a lot of business IMO.

I made it through a round of layoffs. I’m not sure how I’ll fare if this keeps going into May or June. Our company is essential but my work generally requires me to be physically visiting with clients

Ugh that really sucks Paul. Hope this doesn't happen to you, mojo sent brother.

[clipless bumper]

I think we are going to have a gradated scale of 'isolation' rules - depending on where you are in the country.
A good portion of the country (state-wise, not population-wise) will be back to work soon - at least by Easter, if not sooner.
I think the focus may change over to protecting the elderly and those at-risk - while letting the rest of us 'develop' herd immunity.
We can't keep everyone quarantined for the year that it will probably take to develop vaccines for this (if ever).

NYC is screwed for a while - but that is all we hear about in the news lately (at least on this coast).
Has it gotten into the homeless population on the West Coast yet?

I know it’s been a few days, but now the President is recommending social distancing to continue through April 30th. I don’t claim to be an expert, but going beyond that is going to destroy a lot of business IMO.

I made it through a round of layoffs. I’m not sure how I’ll fare if this keeps going into May or June. Our company is essential but my work generally requires me to be physically visiting with clients

I agree fully - and the 'gradated' rules I thought we could get to above now seem to be out the window.

........We're a small company in likely the most impacted industry the shutdown is going to affect: we organize and market conferences. Which depend on people being willing to travel and sit in a group of other people from around the country/world for a few days..............Having said all that, we probably do need to follow the Bill Gates plan. He's way smarter than any of the people in charge of the country, and has been working on this scenario for a decade or more.

The biggest and fastest growing division of my company is also 'Events' oriented - large scale events for companies like Google and Ebay.
The next largest division is building exhibits for trade shows - both of these business sectors have basically completely shut down.

Luckily - I work in the retail fixtures part of our company - this should just be a shorter, temporary shutdown for us - still keeping my hopes up anyway.
1/2 pay - 1/2 hours for the month of April will not be fun - but I think I can get through it just fine.
MANY other people in different situations will be severely hurting though.
Eventually the human cost of the prevention outweights the cost of the virus - this is vastly different for different groups of people - it will be extremely difficult (more like impossible, to handle this with everyone's best interests in mind. Some very hard decisions will have to be made if this goes into May.


And what is Bill Gates plan - can you give me the 40,000 foot view?

[Schweezly]

I think we are going to have a gradated scale of 'isolation' rules - depending on where you are in the country.
A good portion of the country (state-wise, not population-wise) will be back to work soon - at least by Easter, if not sooner.
I think the focus may change over to protecting the elderly and those at-risk - while letting the rest of us 'develop' herd immunity.
We can't keep everyone quarantined for the year that it will probably take to develop vaccines for this (if ever).

NYC is screwed for a while - but that is all we hear about in the news lately (at least on this coast).
Has it gotten into the homeless population on the West Coast yet?

I know it’s been a few days, but now the President is recommending social distancing to continue through April 30th. I don’t claim to be an expert, but going beyond that is going to destroy a lot of business IMO.

I made it through a round of layoffs. I’m not sure how I’ll fare if this keeps going into May or June. Our company is essential but my work generally requires me to be physically visiting with clients

Ugh that really sucks Paul. Hope this doesn't happen to you, mojo sent brother.

Thanks. I’ve been at the company for almost 10 years, and am doing well. I know they’d like me to be around for the long haul...just don’t know how the next few months will go. We are shifting things some though and I’m getting a chance to help with other projects to drive more business. It’s the world of sales I suppose.

When this is all over, maybe we can finally get together and jam/try out some gear. I’ve shifted back to amps some but still use the helix platform quite a bit.

[TurboPablo]

Gates has suggested "pausing" the economy and locking down society for 10 weeks to break the transmission cycle.

[clipless bumper]

Gates has suggested "pausing" the economy and locking down society for 10 weeks to break the transmission cycle.

so that is basically what we are doing - without the martial law that would be required to actually keep everyone in their homes.
We can't 'pause' critical industries - what are his plans for the paycheck to paycheck people?

One question - if we truly 'locked down' society - why would it take 10 weeks to break the cycle?


edit - n/m, answered my own question about the 10 weeks. I forgot that not only can you transmit the virus for at least 2 weeks before you show symptoms - you are also a carrier for X weeks AFTER you have recovered (correct? I did hear that somewhere, no?)

[TurboPablo]

Gates has suggested "pausing" the economy and locking down society for 10 weeks to break the transmission cycle.

so that is basically what we are doing - without the martial law that would be required to actually keep everyone in their homes.
We can't 'pause' critical industries - what are his plans for the paycheck to paycheck people?

One question - if we truly 'locked down' society - why would it take 10 weeks to break the cycle?


edit - n/m, answered my own question about the 10 weeks. I forgot that not only can you transmit the virus for at least 2 weeks before you show symptoms - you are also a carrier for X weeks AFTER you have recovered (correct? I did hear that somewhere, no?)

You follow the European model and have the central banks basically cut checks through the course of the shutdown. That way people at least stay above water. As for critical industry, they are continuing to run. I know this because I am part of that critical infrastructure. That is what keeps society from collapsing altogether. As long as people stay in and avoid gathering together, when this ends they'll have been kept whole and will ideally have money to spend to kick-start the economy back up and running.

But that didn't happen because of incompetence and a failure of leadership.

[K-Bizzle]

Pablo I honestly don't see how we get out of this without an at least temporary UBI of some kind. Frankly the one time stimulus will barely put in a dent and does nothing for predictability.
Failing to do so looks like an almost guaranteed depression unless somehow all those people who have little to no savings and are suddenly out of work manage to put all their bills on credit or something.

I'm wondering at what point we nation collectively just pulls the plug on the social distancing and says the economic risks just aren't worth it anymore.

[TurboPablo]

Pablo I honestly don't see how we get out of this without an at least temporary UBI of some kind. Frankly the one time stimulus will barely put in a dent and does nothing for predictability.
Failing to do so looks like an almost guaranteed depression unless somehow all those people who have little to no savings and are suddenly out of work manage to put all their bills on credit or something.

I'm wondering at what point we nation collectively just pulls the plug on the social distancing and says the economic risks just aren't worth it anymore.

I agree.

The biggest problem I see is that people will never be able to let go of the current perceptions of money and value. This situation requires at least a temporary UBI. But the fiscal hawks will never go for that. Regardless of the fact that money, value and the financial system is nothing more than a conjuring and evolution of the human mind.

But that's a philosophical discussion that seems to terrify most people.

As for people giving up on prevention, I think the way this is exploding could prevent that. Seeing the healthcare system buckle under these circumstances is probably the best preventative measure. You can't even get in to see the dentist around here. Everything and everyone involved in healthcare has stopped seeing people altogether.

[sleewell]

people should only go back to work if the people telling them to will be joining them on the front lines with the public.

if you are too chicken shit to work in the environment you are telling your workers to work in then just STFU and take another lap on your yacht for bit.

[clipless bumper]

Turbo,
Except for a schedule of future payments, we are basically in this mode right now.

And the 'one-time' payments are significant for a basic 2-parent, 2-child family. A $3,400 payment - if taken as a monthly income is the equivalent of over $40,000/year. Add to this unemployment, with the 'extra' $600 on top for at least 4 months - effectively INCREASING income for those making under $20/hr - should go quite à ways.

You can't expect the federal government to make everyone's income whole - we have to look out for the lower income, paycheck to paycheck people first.
And at least here in my area of PA, there are already concessions being made for free internet for those who don't have it (home schooling), suspension of evictions, no later fees or electrical cut offs (even turning people back on who were previously disconnected).

Yes, there will need to be more than just this -importantly rent and mortgage payment concessions (and it is in the works), but I think we are moving in the right direction. It is far from total incompetence and a vacuum of leadership throughout government.

I would like to think we can have a civil discourse on this without name calling and hyperbole, especially here on the forum, probably harder to achieve in the real world.

[K-Bizzle]

Pablo I honestly don't see how we get out of this without an at least temporary UBI of some kind. Frankly the one time stimulus will barely put in a dent and does nothing for predictability.
Failing to do so looks like an almost guaranteed depression unless somehow all those people who have little to no savings and are suddenly out of work manage to put all their bills on credit or something.

I'm wondering at what point we nation collectively just pulls the plug on the social distancing and says the economic risks just aren't worth it anymore.

I agree.

The biggest problem I see is that people will never be able to let go of the current perceptions of money and value. This situation requires at least a temporary UBI. But the fiscal hawks will never go for that. Regardless of the fact that money, value and the financial system is nothing more than a conjuring and evolution of the human mind.

But that's a philosophical discussion that seems to terrify most people.

As for people giving up on prevention, I think the way this is exploding could prevent that. Seeing the healthcare system buckle under these circumstances is probably the best preventative measure. You can't even get in to see the dentist around here. Everything and everyone involved in healthcare has stopped seeing people altogether.

For sure man. Hopefully this situation will start to help change perspectives on things like human value and money.
The US has the whole rugged individualist perspective and thats done quite a lot of us overall but I'm hoping this virus and the subsequent effects from help us realize we're ultimately all in this thing called life together.

Thing is I'm an automater and I think UBI is an inevitability over a long enough time scale if we don't get killed off first. I'm just hoping we start seeing something like that not as a replacement for work but as a recognition of value and realize its not socialism (the government is deciding how its spent, PEOPLE are), its capitalism with a floor.

[clipless bumper]

....Thing is I'm an automater and I think UBI is an inevitability over a long enough time scale if we don't get killed off first. I'm just hoping we start seeing something like that not as a replacement for work but as a recognition of value and realize its not socialism (the government is deciding how its spent, PEOPLE are), its capitalism with a floor.

While the booked statement may be true over a long enough time frame I don't think we are anywhere near that yet - decades away.

'Capitalism with a floor' sure sounds to me like the first step towards socialism, or alternatively, even widening or increasing our current social divides. Seems to me like it would creat three distinct groups of people - entrepreneurs/owners, productive workers who will be paid well for their services, and those who would be content to take the UBI, and sit at home. The first two groups would continue to pull away from the group's 'below' them, unless you want to complete the socialist transition.

[nightflameauto]

It is far from total incompetence and a vacuum of leadership throughout government.

In all reality, this is only true in the last few days. When this was on the horizon, it literally was a complete and utter failure at all levels to recognize the threat and to pay attention to what was happening in the rest of the world. We're watching a reactive lurch to try to rectify the initial failure, but nothing showing us that there's any chance of proactive action once we reach any form of stability. In fact, the reaction itself may be too slow and too bungled to actually accomplish much more than show "we're doing something."

[TurboPablo]

Turbo,
Except for a schedule of future payments, we are basically in this mode right now.

And the 'one-time' payments are significant for a basic 2-parent, 2-child family. A $3,400 payment - if taken as a monthly income is the equivalent of over $40,000/year. Add to this unemployment, with the 'extra' $600 on top for at least 4 months - effectively INCREASING income for those making under $20/hr - should go quite à ways.

You can't expect the federal government to make everyone's income whole - we have to look out for the lower income, paycheck to paycheck people first.
And at least here in my area of PA, there are already concessions being made for free internet for those who don't have it (home schooling), suspension of evictions, no later fees or electrical cut offs (even turning people back on who were previously disconnected).

Yes, there will need to be more than just this -importantly rent and mortgage payment concessions (and it is in the works), but I think we are moving in the right direction. It is far from total incompetence and a vacuum of leadership throughout government.

I would like to think we can have a civil discourse on this without name calling and hyperbole, especially here on the forum, probably harder to achieve in the real world.

Will those benefits be flowing through state unemployment insurance funds? Or is the fed cutting those checks directly? I haven't read anything either way about that particular detail.

Regarding the vitriol, it's hard to be patient with you when you consistently buy into obvious propaganda and then try to disguise and regurgitate it as "optimism". You've been in willful denial of this situation the entire way. That was laid bare when you actually believed that we'd be back to normal by Easter.

And again, yes, this is a failure of leadership from the WHO, CDC, the CEO of this country and so many others.

I really desperately want to know where certain people were investing their money in January and early February.

[TurboPablo]

Let's also not forget that there was a blueprint and dry run through for how to handle this exact situation.

[trey85stang2]

luckily on two fronts for me, I dont hire or fire people directly... and our entire company can work from home and as long as our customers pay the bills we should be good with this specific downturn.

[K-Bizzle]

....Thing is I'm an automater and I think UBI is an inevitability over a long enough time scale if we don't get killed off first. I'm just hoping we start seeing something like that not as a replacement for work but as a recognition of value and realize its not socialism (the government is deciding how its spent, PEOPLE are), its capitalism with a floor.

While the booked statement may be true over a long enough time frame I don't think we are anywhere near that yet - decades away.

'Capitalism with a floor' sure sounds to me like the first step towards socialism, or alternatively, even widening or increasing our current social divides. Seems to me like it would creat three distinct groups of people - entrepreneurs/owners, productive workers who will be paid well for their services, and those who would be content to take the UBI, and sit at home. The first two groups would continue to pull away from the group's 'below' them, unless you want to complete the socialist transition.

Yeah its honestly hard to say the exact time scale, anyone who claims to know is at best giving a slightly educated estimate. You might be right in decades away but with things like automated trucking coming within the decade (pending no artificial legislative impediments) I think we're going to be figuring out what to do with low skilled workers sooner rather than later.
And its not just robots, what many are failing to see things where software and a touch screen are replacing jobs.
Or how Amazon is closing down human powered retail across the country and replacing it software for order processing and accounting and borderline fully automated warehouses.
Heck right now you know what I'm working on at home? I'm literally writing software to write the software I write. I'm literally automating my own job and I'm an engineer.
My point being is that there are not new low skill jobs being created like with previous the previous industrial revolution(s).

And no capitalism with a floor is quite literally not socialism. That is unless you're defining socialism as meaning something other than the government owning the means of production, distribution and exchange.
If a UBI were put into place without means testing and without centralized dictation how the money is spent its still capitalism. Individuals making individuals choices about who and where to spend their money.

Now as far as the groups you mentioned there 100% is the possibility of what you're saying of becoming a reality but I'm wondering how you view things now. To me you're describing how things already are.
I'm not saying its over and we need UBI right now, I just think we need to start thinking/talking about it sooner rather than later because we're hitting an upshot of technology in both hardware and software capability at the same time. The rate of change in the coming decade will be profound assuming we'd don't legislate them to progress more slowly (which I could see happening with trucking).

[TurboPablo]

....Thing is I'm an automater and I think UBI is an inevitability over a long enough time scale if we don't get killed off first. I'm just hoping we start seeing something like that not as a replacement for work but as a recognition of value and realize its not socialism (the government is deciding how its spent, PEOPLE are), its capitalism with a floor.

While the booked statement may be true over a long enough time frame I don't think we are anywhere near that yet - decades away.

'Capitalism with a floor' sure sounds to me like the first step towards socialism, or alternatively, even widening or increasing our current social divides. Seems to me like it would creat three distinct groups of people - entrepreneurs/owners, productive workers who will be paid well for their services, and those who would be content to take the UBI, and sit at home. The first two groups would continue to pull away from the group's 'below' them, unless you want to complete the socialist transition.

Yeah its honestly hard to say the exact time scale, anyone who claims to know is at best giving a slightly educated estimate. You might be right in decades away but with things like automated trucking coming within the decade (pending no artificial legislative impediments) I think we're going to be figuring out what to do with low skilled workers sooner rather than later.
And its not just robots, what many are failing to see things where software and a touch screen are replacing jobs.
Or how Amazon is closing down human powered retail across the country and replacing it software for order processing and accounting and borderline fully automated warehouses.
Heck right now you know what I'm working on at home? I'm literally writing software to write the software I write. I'm literally automating my own job and I'm an engineer.
My point being is that there are not new low skill jobs being created like with previous the previous industrial revolution(s).

And no capitalism with a floor is quite literally not socialism. That is unless you're defining socialism as meaning something other than the government owning the means of production, distribution and exchange.
If a UBI were put into place without means testing and without centralized dictation how the money is spent its still capitalism. Individuals making individuals choices about who and where to spend their money.

Now as far as the groups you mentioned there 100% is the possibility of what you're saying of becoming a reality but I'm wondering how you view things now. To me you're describing how things already are.
I'm not saying its over and we need UBI right now, I just think we need to start thinking/talking about it sooner rather than later because we're hitting an upshot of technology in both hardware and software capability at the same time. The rate of change in the coming decade will be profound assuming we'd don't legislate them to progress more slowly (which I could see happening with trucking).

I think my biggest hope is that, aside from preventing as many deaths as possible, people come through this with a new appreciation for living a simpler life. It'll change the nature of our economy. But that is going to happen anyway. Which is a very interesting quetion too. How will things be different after this?

[clipless bumper]

K-bizz - to me (and I'm sure I'm wrong in the strictest classical sense) - any major redistribution of wealth is a major aspect is socialism.

Yes, social security, welfare, Medicaid are all 'socialist' in nature. But they are FAR from pure socialism - where all of the masses are equal. It is a great range of programs/goals, with a constant struggle between the left pulling us that direction, and the right generally resisting it.

Also, on the technology front, my entire life has seen the promise of automation and technology freeing us from work, and making life 'easier'. In the '60's, the Jetson's would have had us all in flying cars years ago. The big changes never seen to happen as fast as the futuristic predictions say that are going to.

Turbo - I really don't think this is going to fundamentally change anything, unless it economy melts down completely - which I certainly hope does not happen. One thing that will change is the biggest government single give-back in our history will be a fact, which will only ratchet up the cries for more and more to even higher levels. People/families that make decent money (and better) are not going to suddenly stop wanting 'things', or pursuing their version of the American Dream.

[GuitarBilly]

I will be surprised if I still have a job by the end of this week. It's terrible.

[TurboPablo]

I will be surprised if I still have a job by the end of this week. It's terrible.

Damn, that just sucks.

[clipless bumper]

Lots of companies are hiring part time/temporary right now.

I work at Pep Boys weekends - they are still open - 'essential businesses'.
I don't really want to be out and about, but am being careful, social distancing, (I had to put a love on the floor to keep people away from the parts counter) and am putting my money where my mouth is.

Of course, if you can afford to hole up for a month or two - them do it.

[nightflameauto]

Turbo - I really don't think this is going to fundamentally change anything, unless it economy melts down completely - which I certainly hope does not happen. One thing that will change is the biggest government single give-back in our history will be a fact, which will only ratchet up the cries for more and more to even higher levels. People/families that make decent money (and better) are not going to suddenly stop wanting 'things', or pursuing their version of the American Dream.

While I appreciate turbo's hope that this will make people appreciate simplicity a bit more, and possible give our government a vision of what they should be doing rather than how to pocket the most money possible before heave-hoing into retirement with their built-up campaign funds in pocket, I think the reality is if we actually experience a recovery before complete societal breakdown, what will actually happen is we'll see the haves scramble harder than ever to re-establish long-held norms.

Fuckin' run-ons.

Anyway, I have a feeling the snap-back effect from this will be absolutely atrocious. Us peons in the wings will have seen what our government is capable of in a crisis and be left when everything goes back to, "fuck you, work harder."

I hope I'm wrong.