self driving cars...

[TurboPablo]

5.5 million car crashes per year in the us. ~37k fatalities.
A multi billion dollar industry in trucking.
Productivity gains out the wazoo both from being able to actually do something else while commuting as well as the efficiency of what a neural net of vehicles could add in reducing the commute time itself.
These things being as they are the only way this is not happening is with massive pushes legislatively to halt progress.
Doing so will unfortunately put us behind the curve instead of ahead which I think would be a mistake in a world with an ever advancing China.

Back when "automatic" elevators were created people were terrified and said they'd never get in one. How many elevator operators are employed today?
We've already entered the era of semi self driving cars. Teslas literally feed back endless streams of data back to Tesla HQ to improve their AI. Data is food for AI so this increase will be exponential as the increased number of vehicles reporting back increases.
Eventually we're going to get to a point where driving yourself will be considered an immoral act due how much less safe it is relative to self driving. How far away is very debatable, but thinking its not inevitable is not paying attention to the trends and forces of the subject.

As always, morality is a matter of opinion. Good luck getting the keys to Bubba's F-350.

[K-Bizzle]

Morality is not a matter of opinion when you're talking about reducing unnecessary accidental death.
Just like Bubba got his job stolen by the automation cell I designed he'll also eventually get replaced in the driver's seat eventually by a superior process.

[Ostinato Rubato]

It’s really interesting some of the responses here. A bit of denial and discomfort with some stark realities about the next half a century.

This can all be argued and we can all discuss our position on whether or not we would “accept” self driving cars, along with a litany of other giant changes on the horizon with technology and how it will completely transform the way we live.

There were probably horse and carriage drivers that found the first cars immoral or what have you. There were people who wouldn’t ever have their picture taken on principle. The list goes on. But the difference is that the technological transformations won’t be one every 20-80 years. It will be more like every other year soon enough.

Strap in and tighten your asshole fellas. Whether you want to or not you will be riding in self driving vehicles before you’re dead, for sure.

[TurboPablo]

Morality is not a matter of opinion when you're talking about reducing unnecessary accidental death.
Just like Bubba got his job stolen by the automation cell I designed he'll also eventually get replaced in the driver's seat eventually by a superior process.

Bubba had no control over automation. He has control over his truck.

Did you feel good about putting Bubba out of work? Is that actual progress? You sound both proud and dismissive at the same time. That's not a good look at all when you are preaching morality and human safety.

What I am saying is that like it or not, this is going to be incredibly hard to legislate. As a topic of conversation, it's a great debate. But getting the typical American to just hand over the keys won't be easy. Or quick. Maybe in 3 or 4 generations(if we make it that far). But in our lifetime, I have serious doubts. And then, we haven't even touched on the topic of these cars getting hacked.

So again, morality is a matter of opinion. It always is. Or in this thread, it frames a false narrative that allows people to feel altruistic about wanting to have control over other people.

Ultimately, that's what this is about. Control.

[ajaxlepinski]

Too many variables for completely autonomous cars...
- A traffic light is out and a Police officer is directing traffic. Without a driver, how will the car interpret the Officer's hand signals?
- Your route demands that your car make a right turn on the next street. As your car approaches pending turn, you can see that an accident is blocking the street about 30 feet down the block that GPS has instructed the car to take. If you were driving, you could pass the right turn and take the following right. The computer will take the right and get stuck behind the accident until it is cleared.
- Will autonomous cars be able to see road hazards like, large pot holes (that can break an axle) and potentially injure the passenger?
- Road construction removes the white lines from the road on a three lane highway - how will the autonomous car stay in its lane?
- Sun glare blinds the optics or, a plastic bag flying around in the wind, or a sudden snow storm covers the car's sensors.
- Passenger passes out, has a medical emergency and is unable to speak. Will the car realize what has happened and go to a hospital or, simply make its way to the final destination and when the passenger doesn't exit the vehicle, will the computer finally call for help?
- Changing lanes on a LA or NYC freeway will be a challenge especially, during rush hour when no one lets the computer car change lanes and no one lets the computer car move over to get to an exit ramp.

We are a long way off from safe, autonomous cars.

Most of these things humans aren't great at doing either

For #2, the idea is all the driverless cars operate as a neural net (AI) and you have near real time traffic info and routes can be adjusted automatically (like the traffic prediction on google maps or waze). This also helps with point 1 and 4.

For #3 they can and have implemented IR and thermal cameras... snow/dirt/glare become much less of a problem. No worse than running out of wiper fluid or driving into the blazing sun with a dirty windshield, definitely better than the 85 year old grandma with cataracts

Medical emergencies - meat drivers can't do this either if the driver is the one in trouble. They could easily integrate with smartwatches/fitness trackers and detect such issues.

RE merging - Elon, uber and co want it to be illegal to drive your own vehicle. If all the cars are AI driven they can reliably merge at speed with little more than a car length between them.

Most of these things humans aren't great at doing either
You just supported my view... if humans aren't great at driving their own cars and humans are the ones doing the programming, double fail.

For #2, the idea is all the driverless cars operate as a neural net (AI) and you have near real time traffic info and routes can be adjusted automatically (like the traffic prediction on google maps or waze). This also helps with point 1 and 4.
Current traffic predictions are fairly decent but, what about an EMS vehicle or a garbage truck that is blocking the street - which is what I was talking about. These temporary road obstructions are not reported on Google Maps or Waze. A human would take the next turn, the AI will sit behind the temporary road block until it clears.

For #3 they can and have implemented IR and thermal cameras... snow/dirt/glare become much less of a problem. No worse than running out of wiper fluid or driving into the blazing sun with a dirty windshield, definitely better than the 85 year old grandma with cataracts
Hey, I'm all for AI cars but, the majority of drivers are not 85. I suppose AI cars would also be equipped with windshield and sensor wipers and may have a better chance of seeing clearly especially, during adverse conditions. But, would the computer be able to interpret fuzzy sensor readings as well as a human looking through a rain covered windshield? Maybe, maybe not... computer recognition is good but not flawless - insurance companies will not cover "good enough".


Medical emergencies - meat drivers can't do this either if the driver is the one in trouble. They could easily integrate with smartwatches/fitness trackers and detect such issues.
I wasn't talking about a Driver having a medical emergency (a valid issue nontheless), I was talking about the PASSENGER having a medical emergency. Passengers are not going to hook themselves up to smartswitches/fitness trackers just so the car's computer can tell if they need help. You will probably say, "they can put them in the seats" but, will the passenger's health data then be sold to health insurance companies?
I'm all for AI cars...I'm just trying to point out that there are thousands of issues that the computer will not be programmed to handle... simply because, not every issue can be planned for - a human can make new decisions with both good an bad results but, without programming, a computer will either freeze or, make a bad decision.


RE merging - Elon, uber and co want it to be illegal to drive your own vehicle. If all the cars are AI driven they can reliably merge at speed with little more than a car length between them.
Of course Elon, Uber, Lyft, etc., want it to be illegal to drive your own vehicle... then, everyone will be forced to use one of theirs. AI cars will be more expensive and fewer people will be able to afford one - if human's driving becomes illegal, less wealthy people will be forced to take a car service. Not sure how well that will go over.
Of course, prices will eventually drop but, you can bet that the car services will do everything in their power to prevent people from owning their own AI cars and force them to use their app to call a car.

If every car on the road were AI driven, in theory, things would be safer and we would have less traffic... I'm all for it.
In their eagerness, Uber and Elon Musk will put AI cars on the road before they are ready and there will be more crashes and fatalities. The are not nearly ready, as proven by the recent crashes and insurance companies will be against them until it can be proven that the programming is absolutely flawless.
I have no doubt that AI driven vehicles are going to happen, I just don't think it will become mainstream for at least another 30 years. Technology has had rapid advances but, programming for unexpected events is what will slow things down.

[TurboPablo]

Ajax, that's ultimately the biggest hitch. The only way to prove it is 100% safe is with real time testing. Which puts people in inherent danger.

[ajaxlepinski]

The top people at Uber don't care about the danger... all they care about are profits so, this will move ahead with the only obstacle being insurance for when it goes live.
Uber will have to self-insure during the testing process and they can certainly afford the cost of killing a few people.

[TurboPablo]

But when a few become a lot?

[ajaxlepinski]

Do you mean, when will a few people being killed by AI cars become a lot of people being killed by AI cars?
I guess, when Skynet becomes self aware?

[K-Bizzle]

Morality is not a matter of opinion when you're talking about reducing unnecessary accidental death.
Just like Bubba got his job stolen by the automation cell I designed he'll also eventually get replaced in the driver's seat eventually by a superior process.

Bubba had no control over automation. He has control over his truck.

Did you feel good about putting Bubba out of work? Is that actual progress? You sound both proud and dismissive at the same time. That's not a good look at all when you are preaching morality and human safety.

What I am saying is that like it or not, this is going to be incredibly hard to legislate. As a topic of conversation, it's a great debate. But getting the typical American to just hand over the keys won't be easy. Or quick. Maybe in 3 or 4 generations(if we make it that far). But in our lifetime, I have serious doubts. And then, we haven't even touched on the topic of these cars getting hacked.

So again, morality is a matter of opinion. It always is. Or in this thread, it frames a false narrative that allows people to feel altruistic about wanting to have control over other people.

Ultimately, that's what this is about. Control.

No morality is not a matter of opinion when we're talking net reduction in preventable deaths.
When we get to a point where we can reduce auto accident deaths from the current 37,000 per year to 20,000 your suggesting that your personal preference to drive yourself is worth 17,000 lives per year.
There is no argument to be had there aside from when, not if, that is possible. This goes even further when we look at electric cars. The time scale for traditional mechanics is RIDICULOUS when compared to the ms scale that pure electric/computer controlled systems. Tack that on to the delay of a human having to take the input of something happening, make a decision, turn that into physical action of a pressing the brake peddle/wheel/gas, and THEN you have the mechanical response time of the vehicle.
Even in these systems we've already got excellent computer assisted driving systems. The Eyesight system on my fiances Subaru is fantastic and was literally a few dollars per month difference in payment. It paces cars ahead with cruise control flawlessly as well as maintains the lane. Its impressive and they're not even close to cutting edge or industry leading.

My point about automation is industry doesn't care about humans. It never has, it never will.
All trends and forces point towards continued automation in both the physical and information spaces. Like it or not everyone is automating and smarter systems are continued to be developed every day. The only thing that can stop it is legislation which will ultimately make the US less competitive. New paradigms will be necessary sooner rather than later regarding how we move forward.

[itchyfingers]

Me in 1998: You're telling me not one car on this lot comes with a tape player in it?
Me in 2018: What do you mean there's no fucking CD player in my new car?
Me in 2038: You're telling me the car drives me, and I can't drive my car?

[ajaxlepinski]

^^^ ^^^

[TurboPablo]

Morality is not a matter of opinion when you're talking about reducing unnecessary accidental death.
Just like Bubba got his job stolen by the automation cell I designed he'll also eventually get replaced in the driver's seat eventually by a superior process.

Bubba had no control over automation. He has control over his truck.

Did you feel good about putting Bubba out of work? Is that actual progress? You sound both proud and dismissive at the same time. That's not a good look at all when you are preaching morality and human safety.

What I am saying is that like it or not, this is going to be incredibly hard to legislate. As a topic of conversation, it's a great debate. But getting the typical American to just hand over the keys won't be easy. Or quick. Maybe in 3 or 4 generations(if we make it that far). But in our lifetime, I have serious doubts. And then, we haven't even touched on the topic of these cars getting hacked.

So again, morality is a matter of opinion. It always is. Or in this thread, it frames a false narrative that allows people to feel altruistic about wanting to have control over other people.

Ultimately, that's what this is about. Control.

No morality is not a matter of opinion when we're talking net reduction in preventable deaths.
When we get to a point where we can reduce auto accident deaths from the current 37,000 per year to 20,000 your suggesting that your personal preference to drive yourself is worth 17,000 lives per year.
There is no argument to be had there aside from when, not if, that is possible. This goes even further when we look at electric cars. The time scale for traditional mechanics is RIDICULOUS when compared to the ms scale that pure electric/computer controlled systems. Tack that on to the delay of a human having to take the input of something happening, make a decision, turn that into physical action of a pressing the brake peddle/wheel/gas, and THEN you have the mechanical response time of the vehicle.
Even in these systems we've already got excellent computer assisted driving systems. The Eyesight system on my fiances Subaru is fantastic and was literally a few dollars per month difference in payment. It paces cars ahead with cruise control flawlessly as well as maintains the lane. Its impressive and they're not even close to cutting edge or industry leading.

My point about automation is industry doesn't care about humans. It never has, it never will.
All trends and forces point towards continued automation in both the physical and information spaces. Like it or not everyone is automating and smarter systems are continued to be developed every day. The only thing that can stop it is legislation which will ultimately make the US less competitive. New paradigms will be necessary sooner rather than later regarding how we move forward.

Those are good points that I am well aware of. They also lead to the discussion nobody really wants to have. Which is life post-work. We're going to have to talk about universal basic income and health care. It's just a fact. As for legislating automation, I am not referring to industry itself. It's pretty much too late anyway. I am talking about people having a choice whether they can drive their own cars or not. I, for one, don't feel like anyone should dictate that to me. I pay for my car, insurance and repairs. I have a perfect driving record. I built my 5.0 because I love to drive it. I doubt that I am alone in that. When this becomes a question of basic liberty, that's where it will hit serious headwinds. All of the stats and ideals in the world won't matter then.

Some of us prefer being in control of our vehicle. Others don't.

[GuitarBilly]

AI is one thing. Brakes, wheels, drivetrain, chassis and suspension is something else entirely. So yeah, a AI recall can be flashed over the network. But that does nothing to mitigate mechanical recalls. Those will continue to happen and be dealt with the same old way.

I know man. But I wasn't talking about AI fixing mechanical issues. I was specifically address your comment about "lidar going berserk", which would be invariably a software issue. These will be fixed much easier and faster than mechanical issues we always dealt with.

Technology makes cars safer, not more dangerous. That is the trend. Even in perfect condition, a car from 1989 is much more likely to kill you than a car made in 2019 or even 2009.


Your posts (and ajax as well) does reflect what I was saying on my first post though. Having the technology available is one thing, convincing people to buy it is another entirely, especially when it comes to stuff a lot people actually enjoy doing, like driving.

Short of the govt literally prohibiting human driving, this will be a very slow transition.

[TurboPablo]

AI is one thing. Brakes, wheels, drivetrain, chassis and suspension is something else entirely. So yeah, a AI recall can be flashed over the network. But that does nothing to mitigate mechanical recalls. Those will continue to happen and be dealt with the same old way.

I know man. But I wasn't talking about AI fixing mechanical issues. I was specifically address your comment about "lidar going berserk", which would be invariably a software issue. These will be fixed much easier and faster than mechanical issues we always dealt with.

Technology makes cars safer, not more dangerous. That is the trend. Even in perfect condition, a car from 1989 is much more likely to kill you than a car made in 2019 or even 2009.


Your posts (and ajax as well) does reflect what I was saying on my first post though. Having the technology available is one thing, convincing people to buy it is another entirely, especially when it comes to stuff a lot people actually enjoy doing, like driving.

Short of the govt literally prohibiting human driving, this will be a very slow transition.

That's my point. To be a bit more concise, I know that having a driver's license is a privileged. It's not a right. But, for anyone to tell me that after all of these years, I am no longer qualified to wheel my own vehicle is bullshit. Stats be damned. You take a risk getting out of bed in the morning. Live with it. These insurance companies should go fuck themselves away man. Seriously.

The other question it raises, however silly it may sound, is why do I even need a license if my car drives itself? And again, how am I even liable since I'm not driving?


Edit: If the LIDAR goes berserk and you end up in a ditch, flashing the AI isn't going to help you much

[fretless]

if gas keeps going up and restrictions on new cars and perhaps outlawing out of date autos there will be no choice .

[TurboPablo]

if gas keeps going up and restrictions on new cars and perhaps outlawing out of date autos there will be no choice .

No. That's just going to bring electric vehicles to market sooner. Which, aside from each being their very own environmental disaster, would be fun. A 600HP direct drive electric car would rip. It would also be deadly to pedestrians since no one would hear you coming.

Loud pipe save lives.

[K-Bizzle]

Those are good points that I am well aware of. They also lead to the discussion nobody really wants to have. Which is life post-work. We're going to have to talk about universal basic income and health care. It's just a fact. As for legislating automation, I am not referring to industry itself. It's pretty much too late anyway. I am talking about people having a choice whether they can drive their own cars or not. I, for one, don't feel like anyone should dictate that to me. I pay for my car, insurance and repairs. I have a perfect driving record. I built my 5.0 because I love to drive it. I doubt that I am alone in that. When this becomes a question of basic liberty, that's where it will hit serious headwinds. All of the stats and ideals in the world won't matter then.

Some of us prefer being in control of our vehicle. Others don't.

Good I'm glad we agree on that.
And yeah I don't expect a complete and total banning of driving in my lifetime legislatively, but we will eventually hit a point where its generally socially frowned upon or maybe limited to different areas and roads. You're not alone in building your car and loving it. I've done it myself.
I think it'll only take a generation or two for driving your own car to seem quaint.

[fretless]

if gas keeps going up and restrictions on new cars and perhaps outlawing out of date autos there will be no choice .

No. That's just going to bring electric vehicles to market sooner. Which, aside from each being their very own environmental disaster, would be fun. A 600HP direct drive electric car would rip. It would also be deadly to pedestrians since no one would hear you coming.

Loud pipe save lives.

tee hee . If I had a garage where I could put a charging station I'd already have an electric . I won't drive if I don't have to . small footprint if & whenever possible . but battery tech needs to take leaps ahead to really solve some things .

[TurboPablo]

Those are good points that I am well aware of. They also lead to the discussion nobody really wants to have. Which is life post-work. We're going to have to talk about universal basic income and health care. It's just a fact. As for legislating automation, I am not referring to industry itself. It's pretty much too late anyway. I am talking about people having a choice whether they can drive their own cars or not. I, for one, don't feel like anyone should dictate that to me. I pay for my car, insurance and repairs. I have a perfect driving record. I built my 5.0 because I love to drive it. I doubt that I am alone in that. When this becomes a question of basic liberty, that's where it will hit serious headwinds. All of the stats and ideals in the world won't matter then.

Some of us prefer being in control of our vehicle. Others don't.

Good I'm glad we agree on that.
And yeah I don't expect a complete and total banning of driving in my lifetime legislatively, but we will eventually hit a point where its generally socially frowned upon or maybe limited to different areas and roads. You're not alone in building your car and loving it. I've done it myself.
I think it'll only take a generation or two for driving your own car to seem quaint.

Until you sit your 16 year old nephew in the passenger seat, dump the clutch and row 4 gears. For him, driving will never be quaint after that

Also, Bizz, I didn't mean to jump on too hard. I read that post above as very smug and it seemed way out of character for you. So I apologize. And I do totally understand your points about industry and automation. I work in a water treatment plant. I deal with it every day. For better or worse. Overall, our PLC's and analyzers are asset to the operation. But, if you aren't careful, a bad sensor can lead you astray. It definitely requires vigilance.

[GuitarBilly]

Edit: If the LIDAR goes berserk and you end up in a ditch, flashing the AI isn't going to help you much

Yeah, except that the chances of this happening are literally thousands of times smaller than a lot of other risks we deal with on a daily basis when behind the wheel of a car today. You are just more afraid of it, because you don't understand it as well as you understand other parts of your car. That's really all there is to it.

[GuitarBilly]

Good I'm glad we agree on that.
And yeah I don't expect a complete and total banning of driving in my lifetime legislatively, but we will eventually hit a point where its generally socially frowned upon or maybe limited to different areas and roads. You're not alone in building your car and loving it. I've done it myself.
I think it'll only take a generation or two for driving your own car to seem quaint.

Yes, I agree- for places like LA, Seattle, Chicago. Sure.

But let's remember we just elected a president who pretty much said "fuck the environment, let's do coal again" and chances are he will win again next year.

Even when technology gets to the point where taking the F350 away from Bubba makes perfect sense, good luck finding someone to legislate that if he/she needs ANY support from some areas in the country.

Doing the cross country drive last year after spending 2 decades in LA and Vegas was an eye opening experience for me.

Even the area I currently live in, which used to be a coal mining area, is kind of like that. I don't think I've seen a single Prius ever since I moved here. This will take time.

[TurboPablo]

Edit: If the LIDAR goes berserk and you end up in a ditch, flashing the AI isn't going to help you much

Yeah, except that the chances of this happening are literally thousands of times smaller than a lot of other risks we deal with on a daily basis when behind the wheel of a car today. You are just more afraid of it, because you don't understand it as well as you understand other parts of your car. That's really all there is to it.

Probably. But it doesn't change how I feel about it. Maybe over time it will. But today? No fucking way. Not to mention, a risk is a risk. Reduce it as much as you want, it's still a possibility.

And we still haven't talked about hacking into vehicle controls. If these vehicles are hooked up to a network, they are at susceptible.

And then, since we are talking about safety and private industry, let's not forget about what Boeing is going through. That is not out of the realm of possibilities here.

[GuitarBilly]

Probably. But it doesn't change how I feel about it.

I get it. 100%.

[Telephant]

I want the option for both. It would be fucking spectacular if I could nap on the way to work. But on the way home I wanna drive sideways in second gear flipping off rich entitled women for being terrible drivers.