Corona Closure HR Chronicles: The Ballad of Toby

[Ostinato Rubato]

People are getting laid off. I get the displeasure of playing a critical role in deciding who.

Anyone else out here in the battlefields deciding which of the wounded can be saved?

Brutal...

[Marc G]

People are getting laid off. I get the displeasure of playing a critical role in deciding who.

Anyone else out here in the battlefields deciding which of the wounded can be saved?

Brutal...

faced with the same thing here.... not fun at all......

[TurboPablo]

That just sucks. I felt like we were headed for a recession in the next 12-18 months. But this situation has accelerated that like a hyperdrive. We may be deep into a depression very soon.

As for my job, we never close and the pumps hever stop. I am beyond thankful for that.

[sleewell]

nope, just approving or denying home loans. might go back to our resale dept if/when foreclosures ramp up.


I'm not sure I could fire someone.

[Ostinato Rubato]

I’m glad I’m able to work from home as part of our critical skeleton crew, but shit looks grim in the long term for a lot of businesses and jobs. Will we end up hurting more people through economic recession than would have been hurt through infection? The great global social experiment will soon tell....

[Ostinato Rubato]

nope, just approving or denying home loans. might go back to our resale dept if/when foreclosures ramp up.


I'm not sure I could fire someone.

Firing people who deserve it is easy. But knowing I get to break the news to this particular list that’s in front of me...

[clipless bumper]

I think we are going to have a gradated scale of 'isolation' rules - depending on where you are in the country.
A good portion of the country (state-wise, not population-wise) will be back to work soon - at least by Easter, if not sooner.
I think the focus may change over to protecting the elderly and those at-risk - while letting the rest of us 'develop' herd immunity.
We can't keep everyone quarantined for the year that it will probably take to develop vaccines for this (if ever).

NYC is screwed for a while - but that is all we hear about in the news lately (at least on this coast).
Has it gotten into the homeless population on the West Coast yet?

[sleewell]

I’m glad I’m able to work from home as part of our critical skeleton crew, but shit looks grim in the long term for a lot of businesses and jobs. Will we end up hurting more people through economic recession than would have been hurt through infection? The great global social experiment will soon tell....

its kinda funny the let them die people were probably the same hair on fire folks about the non existing death panels just a few short years back. soylent green i guess cool now.


one thing i think many are not considering is that if we just let many more people die we would also be losing their buying power which could really lengthen and/or deepen the recession that we are def in right now after those job numbers yesterday.



its also hard to assume the economy would just jumpstart back to normal while the healthcare system is on the brink of failing. there aren't many economists who would suggest that would happen.

[Ostinato Rubato]

I’m glad I’m able to work from home as part of our critical skeleton crew, but shit looks grim in the long term for a lot of businesses and jobs. Will we end up hurting more people through economic recession than would have been hurt through infection? The great global social experiment will soon tell....

its kinda funny the let them die people were probably the same hair on fire folks about the non existing death panels just a few short years back. soylent green i guess cool now.


one thing i think many are not considering is that if we just let many more people die we would also be losing their buying power which could really lengthen and/or deepen the recession that we are def in right now after those job numbers yesterday.



its also hard to assume the economy would just jumpstart back to normal while the healthcare system is on the brink of failing. there aren't many economists who would suggest that would happen.

I'm not a let them die person. The conversation has unfortunately been distilled down to the most simplistic binary and a lot of our conversation is once again bipolar and unproductive. Just because I voice an interest in exploring the totality of the consequences of all actions taken, and leave it open ended while considering the possibility that we may cause more harm by not having explored the nuances, doesn't mean that I think we shouldn't be taking action or the actions we have.

A lot of countries have handled this is varying ways with widely different rates of infection, spread, and death. Some countries that have shut down the least (Sweden, UK, Germany) have some of the lowest impact across those measures. South Korea is emerging as a good model for longer term containment while Italy (and now Spain) were a terrible example for social practices that spread the virus to high-risk people coupled with an unprepared national healthcare program. It's looking like the countries where the young and old live together and have frequent contact are where the death rates are the highest.

It's also looking like this has been spreading long before we were made aware and that a lot of people who've been sick (and died) didn't know it was covid-19, which means there's already a very large percentage of the population that are immune (at least for a span of time) and have developed antibodies. A test is set to be fast tracked through FDA that tests for antibodies, which will be a game changer. Sure we can test for the active virus so we know who has it, but if we know who has had it and no longer needs to be quarantined then a lot of resources come back into play. Imagine knowing which of your healthcare workers are immune at the moment. You would be able to much better deploy the resources and put the economy back into second gear.

A depression will ultimately cause more death and human suffering. Saying that and suggesting that we start to ask the uncomfortable questions and weigh tradeoffs in an objective way doesn't mean I'm a part of the bipolar conversation.

[clipless bumper]

..........It's also looking like this has been spreading long before we were made aware and that a lot of people who've been sick (and died) didn't know it was covid-19, which means there's already a very large percentage of the population that are immune (at least for a span of time) and have developed antibodies. A test is set to be fast tracked through FDA that tests for antibodies, which will be a game changer.

serious questions - where did you hear this?
When did you hear that it hit the US?
I haven't heard any of this.

[TurboPablo]

I’m glad I’m able to work from home as part of our critical skeleton crew, but shit looks grim in the long term for a lot of businesses and jobs. Will we end up hurting more people through economic recession than would have been hurt through infection? The great global social experiment will soon tell....

its kinda funny the let them die people were probably the same hair on fire folks about the non existing death panels just a few short years back. soylent green i guess cool now.


one thing i think many are not considering is that if we just let many more people die we would also be losing their buying power which could really lengthen and/or deepen the recession that we are def in right now after those job numbers yesterday.



its also hard to assume the economy would just jumpstart back to normal while the healthcare system is on the brink of failing. there aren't many economists who would suggest that would happen.

I'm not a let them die person. The conversation has unfortunately been distilled down to the most simplistic binary and a lot of our conversation is once again bipolar and unproductive. Just because I voice an interest in exploring the totality of the consequences of all actions taken, and leave it open ended while considering the possibility that we may cause more harm by not having explored the nuances, doesn't mean that I think we shouldn't be taking action or the actions we have.

A lot of countries have handled this is varying ways with widely different rates of infection, spread, and death. Some countries that have shut down the least (Sweden, UK, Germany) have some of the lowest impact across those measures. South Korea is emerging as a good model for longer term containment while Italy (and now Spain) were a terrible example for social practices that spread the virus to high-risk people coupled with an unprepared national healthcare program. It's looking like the countries where the young and old live together and have frequent contact are where the death rates are the highest.

It's also looking like this has been spreading long before we were made aware and that a lot of people who've been sick (and died) didn't know it was covid-19, which means there's already a very large percentage of the population that are immune (at least for a span of time) and have developed antibodies. A test is set to be fast tracked through FDA that tests for antibodies, which will be a game changer. Sure we can test for the active virus so we know who has it, but if we know who has had it and no longer needs to be quarantined then a lot of resources come back into play. Imagine knowing which of your healthcare workers are immune at the moment. You would be able to much better deploy the resources and put the economy back into second gear.

A depression will ultimately cause more death and human suffering. Saying that and suggesting that we start to ask the uncomfortable questions and weigh tradeoffs in an objective way doesn't mean I'm a part of the bipolar conversation.

The difference between us and those more successful countries is that they have a competent government that stayed in front of this. They saw it coming and took action. So, while I understand your point of view, it ultimately comes back to the current administration and their complete lack of any level of competence. I know it's political to say this and I am sorry Bill, but, the White House blew it. It's that simple. We wouldn't be here under a different administration.

People are sick and dying because of one man's vanity and all of the power hungry sycophant's that enable him.

[clipless bumper]

I respectfully disagree

[TurboPablo]

I respectfully disagree with reality.

Ftfy.

[Ostinato Rubato]

My "point of view" has space for a lot of things simultaneously. The White House failing to act expediently and exacerbating the impact on the healthcare industry, and the potential for additional significant suffering and loss of life due to prolonged overreaction, are two things that fit very squarely in my point of view at the same time. I have opinions about at which level of government the rubber should be meeting the road on these issues too. The executive branch was not the only place in government where there was a failure to bring resources to bare.

I'm not available for overly simplistic distillations of what's going on. This is one of the most complex, fluid, and nuanced situations we've ever had the pleasure of analyzing.

[K-Bizzle]

I moved out of management when I changed companies in 2018 and could not be happier with that decision right now.
I had built a team that I was really fucking proud of at my last job and to have to start choosing who to lay off would not be a fucking easy position to be in.

Happy to just being an engineer again for the time being so I do not have that stress. I also moved from an industry that largely supported automotive and manufacturing to food packaging. Could not be happier for that industry change as well since I'm now in a more "recession proof" sector.

I do not envy the position of any of you that have to be laying off folks right now.

[nightflameauto]

This whole situation is fucky as fuck. And yeah, it's not some black-and-white thing where you can point to one villain and one hero. There've been so many balls dropped in the US when it comes to this there's plenty of blame to go around, and there's a divide between the deniers and the outright panicked dipshit brigade. It's rare to find people able to discuss it rationally without tossing epithets around about "the other side."

Reality check: THERE IS NO OTHER SIDE WHEN IT COMES TO THIS!

We're facing this as a species. And while we need to prepare ourselves for what that means, I don't think flying off the handle is a good way to prepare.

What I feel the worst about has little to do with me. I'm about as secure as anybody can feel with what's happening as far as resources and my job. My fear is this is one more weight on the scale that's slowly tipping us towards being a nation filled with poverty at an unprecedented level. So many people could be put out of work and there's already some very upset people that the government is daring to step in and hand those people a little tiny shred of what they'll need to survive. We're going to have to shift our thinking, both politically and economically if we're actually headed the way it looks like we are. A lot of smaller businesses aren't gonna make it. And the bigger ones won't be able to sustain current need if lots of their buyers are out of work.

It could get awfully brutal economically if we keep the country shut down for very long. It's already brutal for some.

I'm not saying I have the answers, but I'm truly interested in finding out if someone in a position to do anything about it does. In America right now, it's not really looking that way. We're too busy backbiting and fighting over our perceived divides to try and pull together and do what we can. Bleh.

[clipless bumper]

question for you - who are the people that are upset that "the government is daring to step in and hand those people a little tiny shred of what they'll need to survive."?

and I fully agree with you that the damage from keeping this country shut down more than a few more weeks will be catastrophic.
I think we will be getting people back to work soon.

Hell, quite a few people have been working through this already.

We need to shift our focus to protecting those who are most vulnerable - and the wild card there is all the people who are not taking this seriously - and don't see how their actions can affect many others.

[clipless bumper]

Ok - to answer my own question, it appears there are EIGHT strains circling the globe.

USA Today

I don't think any of these are the 'worst cold I've had' though.

[TurboPablo]

The people taking this seriously vs. those that aren't seem to trend along certain political, ideological and generational lines. As best I can see, based on my own news/media/info consumption and experience, GenX seems to be the cohort following protocol the best. Which I think has to do with being at a stage in life where we are caring for children and/or elderly parents. In my own experience, I have had to melt down on my 86 year old father to get him to stay in. I hate myself for it. But it was necessary because he is that stubborn.

Now, the problem with simply putting people back to work is that while NYC is expected to peak in the next 2-3 weeks, New Orleans and southern Texas are just heating up. Florida too from what I am reading. So in a mobile, transient economy, how do you create cool and hot "zones" while managing a dynamic economy? One zone will be settling down while another is heating up while people are traveling between them. How does the economy function if transportation is minimized or even grounded? Or is it simply a question of operating as normal and hoping for the best? How does that "normal" economy function with a buckled healthcare system? It's buckling already even with social distancing measures. How will it fare in a free for all?

[nightflameauto]

question for you - who are the people that are upset that "the government is daring to step in and hand those people a little tiny shred of what they'll need to survive."?

I won't name names, but there are certain government officials very reticent to see this happen. And there's a lot of ordinary people with steady incomes that they don't see getting taken away complaining about using their tax money to pay people to be lazy and stay home. Much like any mention of handing government money to anyone other than a multi-millionaire or a giant corporation causes consternation for some folks.

and I fully agree with you that the damage from keeping this country shut down more than a few more weeks will be catastrophic.
I think we will be getting people back to work soon.

Hell, quite a few people have been working through this already.

We need to shift our focus to protecting those who are most vulnerable - and the wild card there is all the people who are not taking this seriously - and don't see how their actions can affect many others.

I don't think jumping right back to work without precautions is the best way forward, but also agree we can't just sit stagnant. How we work out the logistics as Pablo says, is going to be a huge task.

Our entire world is changing because of this. We just have to hope somebody has the vision to pull us through it as intact as we can be.

[TurboPablo]

question for you - who are the people that are upset that "the government is daring to step in and hand those people a little tiny shred of what they'll need to survive."?

I won't name names, but there are certain government officials very reticent to see this happen. And there's a lot of ordinary people with steady incomes that they don't see getting taken away complaining about using their tax money to pay people to be lazy and stay home. Much like any mention of handing government money to anyone other than a multi-millionaire or a giant corporation causes consternation for some folks.

and I fully agree with you that the damage from keeping this country shut down more than a few more weeks will be catastrophic.
I think we will be getting people back to work soon.

Hell, quite a few people have been working through this already.

We need to shift our focus to protecting those who are most vulnerable - and the wild card there is all the people who are not taking this seriously - and don't see how their actions can affect many others.

I don't think jumping right back to work without precautions is the best way forward, but also agree we can't just sit stagnant. How we work out the logistics as Pablo says, is going to be a huge task.

Our entire world is changing because of this. We just have to hope somebody has the vision to pull us through it as intact as we can be.

It's logistically impossible. We are too interconnected and transient. The advantage they had in 1918 was that, well, it was 1918.

[nightflameauto]

It's logistically impossible. We are too interconnected and transient. The advantage they had in 1918 was that, well, it was 1918.

Too bad that service oriented economy never actually rose the way it was promised. We could all be sitting in our e-z chairs riding our laptops to work at this point if it had.

Well, it almost rose. Then we off-shored all those service jobs to India because they can almost speak english, and they'll do the work for a lot less money.

Speaking of interconnected-ness:

I know at our place of business we have one supplier that was deemed non-essential. For whatever reason, wood working companies at the moment are on the essential list, but our accessory suppliers are not. So we can build cabinets, but we can't supply door pulls, closet rods and waste bins, for example.

So yeah, the plan being discussed of allowing certain sectors to open while others shut down really would be an absolutely nightmare.

EDIT: Atrocious grammar and spelling.

[TurboPablo]

It's logistically impossible. We are too interconnected and transient. The advantage they had in 1918 was that, well, it was 1918.

Too bad that service oriented economy never actually rose the way it was promised. We could all be sitting in our e-z chairs riding our laptops to work at this point if it had.

Well, it almost rose. Then we off-shored all those service jobs to India because they can almost speak english, and they'll do the work for a lot less money.

Speaking of interconnected-ness:

I know at our place of business we have one supplier that was deemed non-essential. For whatever reason, wood working companies at the moment are on the essential list, but our accessory suppliers have not. So we can build cabinets, but we can supply door pulls, closet rods and waste bins, for example.

So yeah, the plan being discussed of allowing certain sectors to open while others shut down really would be an absolutely nightmare.

I am not a fan of lionizing anyone, but, Bill Gates has studied and funded this kind of stuff for a long time now. So hearing him say that we need a straight up 10 week lockdown of everyone in the land makes me take notice.

We had a chance to ease into this. But there was a complete and total failure of leadership early on. We lost six weeks we really needed. I just don't see anyway to ease out of it now. We're neck deep in the shit.

[PurpleTrails]

My company laid off around 25% of its work force last Thursday. I had nothing to do with the decision cycle for the layoffs, and I'm happy about that. The overwhelming majority of the people let go were good at their jobs.

We're a small company in likely the most impacted industry the shutdown is going to affect: we organize and market conferences. Which depend on people being willing to travel and sit in a group of other people from around the country/world for a few days.

At the current time I'm looking at a future where the industry in which I've spent the last 36 years working may cease to exist as a result of this. While I am likely going to be the last man laid off at the company, I am by no means certain I will be employed in a few months.

Having said all that, we probably do need to follow the Bill Gates plan. He's way smarter than any of the people in charge of the country, and has been working on this scenario for a decade or more.

[Schweezly]

I think we are going to have a gradated scale of 'isolation' rules - depending on where you are in the country.
A good portion of the country (state-wise, not population-wise) will be back to work soon - at least by Easter, if not sooner.
I think the focus may change over to protecting the elderly and those at-risk - while letting the rest of us 'develop' herd immunity.
We can't keep everyone quarantined for the year that it will probably take to develop vaccines for this (if ever).

NYC is screwed for a while - but that is all we hear about in the news lately (at least on this coast).
Has it gotten into the homeless population on the West Coast yet?

I know it’s been a few days, but now the President is recommending social distancing to continue through April 30th. I don’t claim to be an expert, but going beyond that is going to destroy a lot of business IMO.

I made it through a round of layoffs. I’m not sure how I’ll fare if this keeps going into May or June. Our company is essential but my work generally requires me to be physically visiting with clients